Tuesday, October 18, 2011


If you can look me in the eye and tell me you thought the pale, soft, slow-footed, rosie-cheeked kids that came right out of Sweden to the big time and suffered a tumultuous half-decade before finding their stride would some day be back-to-back league scoring leaders then you're a smarter man than I.

Even when the twins started posting near point per game totals it seemed as if they were destined to be considered a good second line option and a power play specialty.  So, when does the shine wear off?

I just caught a segment on the Score about aging stars without Stanley Cup rings and where they fit alongside the games' greats.  The trio in question were Shane Doan, Jarome Iginla and Daniel Alfredson.  Iggy is a Richard trophy winner, a 50 goal man, considered one of the best power forwards ever and of course has the obligatory 1,000+ points.  Doan, a gritty under-dog leader of small market franchises is one of the games classiest, but he'll never have the point totals or hardware to earn a HOF vote.  Alfredson, on the other hand, doesn't have a niche like the other two, but he does have a Calder Trophy and a cup run and 1,000+ points, but is it enough.  When I looked at his stats I saw a trend that was reminiscent of the Sedins and I had to apply it.

For five seasons to begin his career Alffy averaged 53.8 points per season, then took a jump to 70, 71, 78 and 80 for four seasons and then after the lockout a quantum leap to 103, 87 and 89 then returned for two seasons to the 70 point range and then to last year's injury shortened campaign and this years slow start as a 39 year old winger on a team in the midst of a major rebuild...almost a demolotion.

Henrik and Daniel broke in to the league in 200-01 and averaged 37 and 38 points per season for the first four seasons, then spent the lockout in Sweden and came back to move on like Alffy to a new plateau averaging 78.5 and 78 points per game over the next four seasons, then began the hardware era. First Henrik notched 112 points to win the Hart and Art Ross Trophies, then brother Daniel bounced back after an injury plagued season to win an Art Ross of his own, and now the back-to-back league leaders in points are on pace for 115 this year. 

If we compare Alffy to the Twins then this would be the third of their three years of their prime, followed by a decline in production, only in this third season in their prime they are 31 whil Alfredson was 37 - so, why can't they continue to produce at this level for the next six years before they experience a drop off back to the 70 - 80 point era and then a ride in to the sunset.  That would make for five more seasons in their prime, where they are so far averaging 101 and 107 points per season, taking injuries and point per games totals in to account we can split the difference and say 103 for five seasons after this, then two in the 70s and a retirement year at 39.

Henrik has slightly higher totals at 673 while Daniel has 658, by the Alffy/Sedin forecast theorum you can then add 820 points to each, making them near 1,500 point producers and of course hall of fame locks - especially when they win a cup or two over the next decade.  These totals would see them mentioned in the same breath, points wise, as the likes of Trottier, Recchi and Mikita.

Both the Twins and Alffy had cup runs in the second of their prime seasons - only the Twins will have nearly three times the primes, so hopefully two more shots at the cup.

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