Thursday, September 8, 2011

The Mancari Case

Mark Mancari has been among the top scorers of the AHL for half a decade.  He's a budding powerforward at 6'4", drafted in the seventh round by the Sabres in 2004 and just now left the organization via free agency for a shot with last year's cup runner up. So how does AHL supremacy translate to NHL performance?

In a crowded Canucks camp it's easy to think Mancari is forecasted to be an insurance policy and be on his way for another stellar AHL campaign.

If it's gritt the Canucks are looking for with him then he might just come out on the losing end of the last few roster spots which will be contested by the likes of tough guys Steve Pinnizoto, Mike Duco, Byron Bitz and Steve Begin.  Despite his size he's not considered a gritty player never once hitting the 100 PIM mark in a season at any level. Last season he had 8 points in 20 games being used sparingly by the Sabres, but only has 35 games under his belt in the big leagues already 26 years old. So what is he doing here in Vancouver?

I would have to say it's his points totals in last year's call-up that caught the Canucks scouting staff and not his frame.  There's a chance he may be battling Hodgson and Hansen for top six minutes while Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond rehab from injuries at the season's start.

Here's some stats on former AHL studs turned solid NHLers in recent memory and some eerie similarities.

David Desharnais: Scored 78 points in 2009-10 in the AHL then went on to record an impressive 22 in 43 games with offensively starved Montreal last season.

Tyler Ennis: His 65 points in 69 games in the AHL in 2009-10 led to an impactful 49 in 82 with the big club last season.

Mike Santorelli: Lit it up in the AHL with Milwuakee in 2009-10, like Mancari changed teams after a solid semi-pro season for an opportunity with Florida where he was among the 20 goal ranks in 2010-11.

PA Parenteau: Sported over a point per game average in the AHL in 2008-09, put up a respectable 8 points in 22 games with the Rangers the next season, then crossed the bridge to Long Island where he scorched the Atlantic conference with 53 points in 81 games and secured an NHL paydady with a multi year contract.

Artem Anisimov: This guy may have made the afformentioned Parenteau expendable at MSG playing each and every game for the Rangers over the past two seasons following a PPG campaign in the AHL. He has 64 points in 162 career NHL games and a nice Iron Man streak going.

Tim Brent: Was ripping up the AHL in 2009-10 when injuries cut his season short.  He came back and earned a roster spot with the Leafs boasting an impressive 20 points in 79 games last season and playing in all situations. He took the money and left for Carolina where he'll be given a chance to play alongside some of the games best up and coming young guns.

Then you have the Pittsburgh FOUR -

Dustin Jeffrey: 71 points in 77 AHL games in 2009-10, had 12 points in 25 games in a late season callup before an ACL injury cut his season short.  He'll be in the mix filling in for Sid the Kid to start this season.

Brett Sterling: Recorded 5 points in 7 games in a late year callup with Pitt and found a home in St. Louis this offseason after a PPG in the AHL last year.

Mark Letestu: Refined his game in the AHL from 2007 to 2010 recording 112 points over the past to seasons in the second best pro league in North America, then stepped up in a big way for the Pens last year tallying 27 points in 64 games in under centre replacing Sid, Malkin and Staal.

Chris Conner: Amassed 16 points in 60 games with injury ravished Pitt last season after 56 points in 59 games the season before in the AHL.  He's the best example of Mancari's big chance with Vancouver as Conner left Pittsburgh for Detroit this offseason.  Is there a team better known for it's under the radar pick ups than the Red Wings?  The only one close of late would have to be the Nux who have resurected the careers of Mikael Samuelson, Raffi Torres, Chris Higgins and Aaron Rome to name a few.

Strangely enough many of these guys have been late round picks who had very good junior numbers.  They've all worked hard to get in to the show and added time in the minors has paid major dividends for the parent clubs.  If there was a forward group more crowded than Buffalo's it's Vancouver, and I don't think Mancari would leave not knowing that he has a shot to be an impact player on a cup contender. Besides, Torres departure is an all too obvious opening for Mancari to be penciled in for a cheaper cap hit.

Offensive Options

Canucks VP Hockey Operations Laurence Gillman has tweeted both Ryan Kesler and Mason Raymond are recovering from their respective injuries ahead of schedule.  Injuries aside these two and mikael samuelson are going to be relied upon to improve our secondary scoring, which was a no-show in the playoffs and below par in the regular season despite the teams impressive offensive and special units play. 

I'd like to say I believe Samuelson can score 30 again and Raymond will improve on the 25 he got two seasons ago rather than continue to take steps backwards. The reality is both are coming off serious injuries and it is unlikely they will, and for the team chemistry and success they really shouldn't be expected to, although it would be a nice bonus.

Once healthy these two will bump Marco Sturm and Chris Higgins back to third line duty.  Last year's third line was arguably the strength of the team.  Janik Hansen's ability to play up and down the forward lines and bring his best effort every night were an intangible blessing.  Manny Malhotra's stellar two way play and faceoff prowess are irreplacable, and a big contributor to the teams puck possession game. Perhaps the biggest hole to fill will be the physicality Raffi Torres brought.

All three exhibited very specific talents.  Now with a revamped third line of Higgins, Malhotra (hopefully) and Sturm the Canucks almost have a 2A/2B line situation.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the third line outscore the second, as forecasted that is.

The real benefit will be line matching challenges presented by the improved offensive depth. This will probably allow more opportunity for everyone to score as the Canucks drive opposing coaching staffs crazy with the veteran offenisve talent they can dole out shift after shift.  Many are calling the canucks forwards turnover and health a detraction from last years' standing, but when you forecast their forward core when healthy it is much more potent, offensively atleast.

Picture this:

Sedin            Sedin         Burrows
Raymond      Kesler       Samuelson
Higgins         Malhotra    Sturm
Oreskovich  Lapierre     Hansen

The depth upfront is so strong that the spare parts (Hodgson, Schroeder, Ebbet, Mancari, Bitz, Nolan, Duco, Pinnizoto, Fedoruk, Sweatt, Volpati, Rodin, Begin) might actually be considered a better group than some other NHL teams' offensive options.  Seriously, stack the group in brackets up against the forwards for Nashville, Ottawa, Phoenix to name a few.

The improvement offensively is best summized by the fact that Janik Hansen is potentially starting the season on the fourth line.

I can't deny that injuries may lead to a slow start, but this is a blessing in disguise as some of the fringe and depth players will get more opportunity to develop and showcase their skill while some of the veteran leaders heal up.

Hansen could seriously skate on the second line for the first quarter of the season.  Watching his progression it is totally feasible that he not relinquish that role just because Samuleson or Raymond return.  He has to be at the top of the list of forwards with the potential to surprise this season.  Joining him would be Manny Malhotra who's assist numbers should jump with more offensively gifted wingers. Of course Alex Burrows starting the year healthy means he should regain 30 goal form (even though he was on 30 goal pace in his injury stunted 2010-11 campaign).  A healthy Marco Sturm will be a great option on the second PP unit which was surprisingly weak considering the Nux finished the year on top of PP officiancy. Lapierre and Oreskovich even could benefit with some extra time in the formative parts of the Nux 2011-12 season. Heck, if they finally convert Hodgson to the winger he should be at the NHL level then he could be in the Calder trophy discussion.

Of course the big detractor for the Nux offensively might not be a forward at all but infact the loss of Christian Ehrhoff on the back end and first PP unit.  As of yet there isn't really a replacement for him but Alex Edler should be able to step up and fill the void.  I would love to see Kevin Connauton get a chance to see if he can fill that void.

Arguably, yes, every one of the Nux' forward corps could have a better year than last, even points leader Daniel Sedin, and that's a scary thought for opponents.

Anyone who thinks the Canucks window of opportunity to win is narrowed by the injuries that beset them is plain wrong.  The way I see it it has actually only begun to open.

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Great Signings

The Canucks' pro-scouting deserves some serious cred.  I might be putting the cart before the horse here but I applaud the moves to bring in Andrew Ebbet, Mark Mancari and Alexander Sulzer.

Re-signing Higgins and bringing Sturm shows the direction this team is going.  The lessons learned from coming up one game short in the Stanley Cup Finals is: We need offensive depth. 

While most fans hoped we'd get tougher in the process it appears that the game plan is not to fight fire with fire but to smother it with a plethora of offensive threats.  For similar money I would probably take Raffi Torres over over Sturm or Higgins but it is clear the team has a direction and I will trust it.  Amidst rumblings that Gillis and Co. are still in the impact player market I have to say if the moves made thus far are it then I'm OK.  This team has a proven track record of finding diamonds in the rough.

Mancari is a power forward playing a point-per-game in the AHL.  I believe they see him as a possible Torres replacement with far greater offensive upside and that he will be given a fair shake in training camp.  Ebbet also had a point per game last season in the AHL and the diminutive puck moving centre and former BCHL star is a great depth signing.  Alexander Sulzer taking a two-way deal as a pretty well established NHLer is a great pick-up.  All three will vie for time with the big club, and the signings are a testament not only to the scouting of talent but the ability to attract it.

All three of these players would have better chances of making lesser teams but are willing to fight to try to earn space with last year's runner up: why?  Because this franchise is top notch, and, not only that, there must be some measure of dialogue about where these players fit in to future plans. 

So the Canucks didn't over-pay (as of yet) for an impact player, but they might just turn a few up on the cheap.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Broadcasters witout a clue

After watching Boston Gregg's new video (he is hillarious) I youtubed Raffi Torres to see if I could find a compilation of his hits and was surprised that I couldn't...he's had so many memorable ones and his physical play along with the acquisition of malhotra prior to the season is the reason the Canucks are in the finals.

I was also shocked by what I heard in the replay of the two individual hits I did watch: The Eberle Major and the hit on Seabrook.

In the Eberle hit the Oilers commentary said the hit was to an unsuspecting player.

In the Chicago series we see the puck roll around the boards to Seabrook behind the net.  He is waiting for the puck on his backhand being a righthanded defender and as it skips past him he reaches for it, only to be obliterated by Torres.

I didn't have to re-watch the Horton hit from game three by Aaron Rome but clearly Horton is admiring his pass in a high-traffic zone.

"That is a dirty play....Seabrook hadn't even touched the puck....he might have stuck the elbow out.   It's a dirty play....Elbow in to the jaw...this is what's disturbing, if Seabrook had've stayed down and milked this." CSN broadcasters

WHAT ELBOW?

"Torres clobbered Eberle...I think for Raffi Torres you can say goodbye to the first round of the playoffs....that's a clip, that's an unsuspecting players....definitely looked like a high one....you can't tel me that's not a head shot..." CBC Broadcast Crew in a mean-nothing game, one of many established by the NHLs flawed draft process as shit teams like Edmonton ice the worst line-up possible to win the "Fall for Hall"

A HIGH HIT?  EBERELE, THE ROOKIE, MADE A ROOKIE MISTAKE IN  MANS LEAGUE: DON"T REACH FOR THE PUCK!!!  I HOPE HE LEARNED HIS LESSON.

"Right after he distributed the puck (yes it was, thanks for calling it like it really is)...that is a late hit by aaron rome (pardon?)....that's rule 48...a high hit to a vulnerable player"

DON'T BE VULNERABLE....THERE"S A WINDOW IN WHICH IT IS ACCEPTABLE TO BE HIT...THIS HIT WAS AT THE LONG END OF THAT TIME FRAME, BUT BARELY.

In all of these plays a physical player in a contact sport made a hit that is now deemd "predatory".  Can anybody tell me

"That's why the league put in rule 48 to protect players in that situation"  - - I'm sorry, where I came from people were taught how to play.  Taught how to take a hit.

Don't watch your pass Nathan!  Don't reach for a puck Jordan!  Don't reach back and not look on the dump in Brent!  Sorry, but this league and some of those around it are all to happy to spin-doctor these hits to make it look like those dishing them out are horrible evil players, but the nature of hockey is to punish those getting comfortable making plays that should be restricted by the very nature of this physical game.  This isn't even hockey anymore.

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Rome Hit Sensationalized

I read a story on my homepage this morning about the Aaron Rome hit that ocurred in the early part of the first period of last night's Stanley Cup Final Game really got under my skin.

The report claimed Rome left his feet to make the hit when in actuallity his feet were firmly planted on the ground at the point of impact.  It was a borderline late him, sure, but don't make it worse than it actually was.  When a big impact like that happens on the ice in the trolly-tracks both players involved will lose their footing, which did happen after the hit, but that is too often mistaken for intnentionally leaving the feet to make the hit.

Don't make these hits worse than they are.  The reason Nathan Horton suffered a severe concussion (and any hockey fan, Canuck or Bruin, should feel horribly for the result of the hit and for Horton) is because the impact in neutral ice is so insanely huge now without obstruction.  The NHL is punishing it's own players by playing the game under the new rules they implemented to try to make the game more interesting to the casual fan, and they did this with utter disregard for the poeple on the ice.

Monday, June 6, 2011

tired....oh, so tired

I felt exhausted after the mid point of the second period. Tired of one of the NHLs biggest let-downs: it's inabillity to let a series develop organically.  They've taken the wonder and amazement out of the best championship of any organized sport and reduced it to the WWE.

For the most part the end result is unchanged but the script is so blaze, I feel like I'm watching 'The Contest' episode for the 16th time...only when Kramer bursts through the door fifteen seconds in to the challenge I don't laugh, instead, I hoh-humm as yet another player is thrown out of the circle.  It doesn't do much to the course of a game, but add it up and eventually a miss-match in the dot and boom, a goal.  One team is way ahead, better try to make it close with make-up calls.  And what is an icing anymore? I challenge one person associated with the NHL to give me a clear answer. 

The league has done a great job to add to the ambiguity to give more options in pulling the strings of an NHL contest like a master pupateer...the problem is their great creation is indeed not a real boy.

Aaron Rome's clean open-ice hit on Nathan Horton was the perfect opportunity for the NHL to extend it's biggest showcase.  Conveniently the newly created five minute interference penalty gave the host team a whole five minutes on the PP and shorted Van a depth d-man, a position that's already lacking, but it backfired, so we had to see a slew of brutal calls, and to wrap up this hockey equivelant of a wet-fart fans were subjected to a bizarr-o ejection fest.

I'm not so hard-edge to think that someone is profittin illegally from this, other than the NHL playing their hand to their advantage, but someone is definitely getting ripped off: the fans.  Shouldn't it be about satisfying the paying customer?  Or like in successful hockey markets will the NHL just continue to turn it's hardcore fan bases in to it's own personal whipping post?

It could be worse, in basketball the referees take bribes to make questionable calls that do little other than effect the score of a game not the Win-Loss column, in NHL it's a mandate of their employer. 

Friday, June 3, 2011

Sad but true

As a Canucks fan I'm void of satisfaction with my team..it's my own fault, and I'm sure it's the cross that all Nux fans bare.  If you're like me, atleast, you're to a degree able to enjoy this cup run (first of three in which we are the favourites), but with the dismantling of the last year's cup champ still fresh in the memories of all NHL fans it's hard not to think ahead to the aftermath. 

The Canucks used the most players this year, a testament to our depth, and as the President's (and soon to be Stanley) Cup Champions we should be sufficed with our teams capabilities, but one glaring upgrade to make is our five-on-five play and where that can especially be improved is depth of offensive threats beyond Kess and the top-line.  If our power-play and PK weren't so strong we definitely wouldn't be where we are today, and if we don't upgrade then the dynasty dream won't be a reality despite the great moves by management to lock up our core players long term.

Our top line and PP can score, and all of our forwards are capable defenders, but we need secondary scoring at even strength. Luckilly we have a ton of assets (again thanks to great signings and scouting by nux staff) but unfortunately we're also right up against the cap limit. 

Kevin Bieksa's inspired play in this postseason and solid regular season mean he'll be back, and no other d-man brings more offense (a key to our success) than Christian Ehrhoff, also a UFA, so the two must return to join Edler and Hamhuis next season, and we have a glut of good young prospects ready to make the leap, and with Aaron Rome still under contract for one more year it's become apparent that to make room on the back-end and under the cap we must somehow trade Keith Ballard.

I am not a Ballard-hater.  His offensive numbers weren't great but I feel most thought he didn't perform just because he was in AV's doghouse, when in reality he was plus-ten and played through injury when he came over hurt.  And on most teams his cap hit isn't too bad.  Compare him to other defensemen in his income bracket and he doesn't look too bad, he's just a victim of the Nux deep D pipe-line and the salary cap.  I think he is totally tradeable, and unfortunately we need to move him to make room.

Next the Nux have to trade Mikael Samuelson and Mason Raymond, two very servicable players but Cody Hodgson needs to play top-six minutes and will be a great addition as a winger to our second line and second PP unit.  This sets the table for the next move, trading Cory Schneider.  He deserves it and if we don't he'll walk, also, Eddie Lack (another smart signing by Nux brass) is ready for NHL duty.  he's worth more at the draft then the deadline so it will be sooner rather than later so I expect Mike Gillis will have a summer comparable to Stan Bowman's last year.

Who Needs a goalie and what can we expect in return?

Two teams in our own backyard, the North West Division, Edmonton and Colorado, both loaded with prospects but it would be tough to see Schneider succesful with teams that are direct rivals. David Jones posted 27 goals for the Avs last year and could be available...I don't have enough time to list the Oilers assets, but would Gillis really move within his own division?

Three teams in the Atlantic will need a keeper: The Isles, Devils and Flyers.  We need immediate impact players, so the Devils are out, and the Isle's would be remiss to move any of the prospects they have that have turned out, which makes the Flyers the most likely dance partner, with a glut of offensive players that could be moved including: Jeff Carter, James Van Riemsdyk and Claude Giroux.  Carter, recently signed, is cap hit of 6mil which we can fit if we move Ballard, if not it's foreseeable keep Ballard and sacrifice Ehrhoff or Bieksa and still fit Carter, but that's unlikely.  There's no way the Flyers should move JVRD which leaves Grioux's managable contract of 3.75.  Also he's a playmaker whic a second line in Vancouver will need rather than a power forward goal scorer like JVRD or Carter.  Any of the three will make Vancouver a significantly better five on five offensive threat, and that's a scary thought for opposing teams.

Columbus may have lost faith in Steve Mason and they have a few good second line players like Antoine Vermette, Derek brassard or Jakob Voracek...Ditto for Tampa Bay with names like Teddy Purcell and Steve Downie.

The Flyers and Ilya Bryzgalov are professing an interest to sign, but, with the Flyers cap crunch I don't think it's feasible.

With these moves the 2011-12 defending champs should look like:

Sedin  Sedin  Burrows
Carter Kesler Hodgson
Torres Malhotra Hansen
Tambelini Bolduc Oreskovich

Ehrhoff    Edler
Hamhuis  Bieksa
Rome      Tanev
Sauve      Connauton

Lou and Lack

Torres and Hansen need to be resigned, both at small pay increases....this team needs their physicality.  Tambelini needs to comeback because he can play up and down the line-up.  Bolduc looked great before injury and has size and footspeed, same for Oreskovich, so they can replace Raymond's PK time.

All of this improving the team and restocking the cupboard with draft picks and prospects for players like Ballard, Raymond, Samuelson.